So much has transpired since last month’s letter it is hard to know where to start. President Trump’s whirlwind tour of Asia came right on its heels. Nearly $1 Trillion worth of investments were secured with Malaysia, Cambodia, South Korea and Japan. He also presided over the signing of a peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, which the US helped to broker. An incident where a soldier was killed by a landmine threatened to revive the conflict but so far the peace has held.

The culmination of the trip was a meeting with President Xi of China. Trade tensions have cooled considerably with a lessening of many US tariffs, critical minerals again flowing from China and a return to agricultural purchases that have hitherto been the norm. Other notable encounters included an audience with the emperor of Japan and events with their new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi.

Takaichi is the first woman to ever be Prime Minister in Japan. She intentionally models herself on Margaret Thatcher, the former conservative leader of the UK. However her economic credentials are far from that of the Iron Lady. Japan has just approved a $135 Billion economic stimulus package to offset the contraction they suffered last quarter, despite interest rates of 0.5%. Inflation is an issue, but many are concerned about the nation’s debt, which has passed 260% of GDP. 

This at a time when Japan is determined to increase its military spending. Takaichi angered China by openly talking about aiding the US in defense of Taiwan, should it become necessary. This provoked the ire of their larger neighbor and there have already been diplomatic and economic repercussions. 

Meanwhile, China has launched their third aircraft carrier, the first to be domestically designed and constructed. While their navy is a fraction of the size of that of the US, the carrier would likely play a key role in any attempt to take Taiwan. It is also a great source of national pride, or propaganda, depending on how you look at it.

In Europe, the war between Ukraine and Russia grinds on. Russia continues to make slow and costly gains on the battlefield and is now claiming some key cities that have hung in the balance for a long time. Ukraine successfully struck an oil depot on the Black Sea. Such are the volumes that pass through it, an estimated 2% of the world’s oil supply was temporarily down on account of it. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers have begun to have an effect. Major refineries in India and China have found different sources of supply. 

This added pressure may be why conversation is again focused on a potential peace agreement. Previous efforts have stalled and fallen apart. The US is now pushing a plan it claims is close to having a consensus on. Ukraine would have to accept Russian control over the territories they have claimed and now largely occupy. Russia would withdraw from other small segments and freeze the frontlines in other places. 

Ukraine would also not be allowed to join NATO and would cap the size of their army at 600,000 men. No NATO expansion has been a key Russian demand and part of the agreement precludes the alliance stationing troops in Ukraine. It does include “robust security guarantees” for Ukraine without going into detail. It is thought that something similar to NATO’s Article 5 for mutual defense would be arranged, committing Europe and the US in the event of future conflict. 

Whether or not such an arrangement will be palatable to all parties remains to be seen. The US is putting pressure on all sides to force a resolution. Zelensky has been making the rounds to European capitals, notably committing to purchasing 100 French Rafale fighter jets. That however is over the next 10 years, and all the time and training necessary to begin using them make it highly unlikely they will play any role in the current conflict. Other than signaling, of course.

Washington DC has hosted both President al-Sharaa of Syria and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman  of Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. The UN formally lifted sanctions on al-Sharaa before his visit. Sketchy as he may be, the US is committed to trying to revive Syria and deny Iran an ally on Israel’s border. Sharaa also agreed to join the US coalition to prevent a revival of the Islamic State terrorist group in the region.

The visit by Crown Prince MbS (as he is called) had even greater implications. The US has agreed to sell Saudi Arabia a number of F-35 stealth fighters. This is significant because up until now Israel is the only Middle Eastern country to possess them. While it does not upend the balance of power, it is a significant shift as well as a commitment on the part of the US to Saudi Arabia’s defense. There are potential ramifications for Iran in addition to stopping the Saudi’s slide towards China and Russia in terms of influence.

And the $1 Trillion in US investment Saudi Arabia pledged during the visit cannot be ignored either. For all the criticism Trump’s brash negotiating has come in for, there is little to be said against the string of massive commitments that have been made to the United States. I even read an NPR report on it that was downright pleasant!

We cannot forget some of the tragedies that have occurred in these preceding weeks either. Hurricane Melissa left about 100 people dead throughout the Caribbean and caused unbelievable devastation. Typhoon Kalmaegi left over 200 dead in the Philippines alone. Our prayers are certainly with those who have lost loved ones and may be facing a long and difficult process to rebuild their lives and homes.

Domestically, we have also seen the end of the government shutdown. At least until January. Underneath all of the other contentious details we are still a nation with a tremendous debt burden. All of the efforts towards cutting costs and reviving the economy are good and necessary in their own right, but they will be in vain if the debt is not addressed in time. There is some indication that steps are being made in that direction, God-willing they will continue.

Once the shutdown ended, congress immediately approved the release of the Epstein files. Trump signed the bill into law and now the country is waiting to see what will actually come to light. It cleared the Senate unanimously and had only 1 vote against in the House. Files pertaining to ongoing investigations will be withheld, which may be enough to cover a multitude of sins (if you’ll pardon the expression). 

With all this, the country prepares to pause for Thanksgiving. It is a beacon of hope between the foolishness of Halloween and Christmas, however much the retailers have tried to crowd it out. There is still a great deal to be thankful for. Hopefully the nation will pause and remember we have a Creator and Sustainer to whom we owe all things. Hopefully… 

It has been busy here at headquarters. With the Update, this letter and the next issue of 21st Century WATCH all coming due at the same time, my dad allowed me to shoulder part of the load by writing this letter

Sincerely,

Michael Armstrong

Link to this month’s letter offer: Individual Responsibility by Garner Ted Armstrong